Beware of the great overthink

[mepusica]

Having read Mitchell Cogert's book on tournament poker I now constantly have the mantra "risk is good" repeating itself in the the back of my head.
This has lead to some questionable decisions during my learning phase.
I will give you an example from a tournament I played today. Blinds were 150/300 and my stack was 4500. UTG+1 I raise 700 with AJ (hoping to scoop the blinds) and the action is folded to BB who is the chipleader with 20000+ chips. The BB goes all in.
So I'm thinking what could the BB have that could justify going all in:

Well first of all he might have absolutely nothing and is simply using his stack to bully the small stack players (I hate bullies, met plenty of the during my years in school). In this case I'm ahead with my two high cards. Since risk is good this is a situation where I would like to call and possibly double up. I entered the tournament to win; not to play safe.

Secondly he might have a low PP. If I were the chipleader I would play a low PP like this. In the case of a low PP it's basically a coin flip and again I would like to call for the chance of doubling up.

Thirdly he might actually have something good like two overcards or a high PP in which case I'm an underdog and would definitely prefer to fold.

How do you assign probabilities to these three cases in the short time available while the little man in the back of your head is shouting "risk is good", "risk is good"......
It's almost enough to make you forget that AJ isn't really that great a hand and that if you fold you will have another chance to double up later.

Well I my case the little man won and I thought "fuck it...I call". My opponent showed JJ leaving me 3 outs and a very unlikely straight possibility to win the hand. Of course I didn't suck out otherwise I wouldn't be writing this post.

Lesson learned: A big all in reraise from the chipleader isn't always a semi-bluff bully move.

[McTap03]

No, it doesn't always mean a bully move, but you did the right thing by analyzing it properly. Sure you decision didn't work out for you, but like Mitchell says "risk is good." Next time it might pay off.

[kraster]

u did it right since u

entered the tournament to win; not to play safe

please point the full name of the book, since im very shy when it comes to poker ><

thnx and gl in the next tourneys,
kraster

[mepusica]

The book is called:

Tournament poker, 101 winning moves by Mitchell Cogert

You need a good understanding of the game before you read it...

[kraster]

Originally Posted by mepusica

You need a good understanding of the game before you read it...

what do u wanna say? that i dont understand the game ? think that was aimed only at me >< thnx anyway for the title

[mepusica]

I was being serious for once....you have to be comfortable with pot odds, probability, position etc....to benefit the most from the book.
It was a general remark, not aimed at you in any way Kraster